Mississippi Valley St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	349.0
Current RPI:	349
Expected SOS:	337
Current SOS:	337
Current Record:	4-28
Expected Record:	4-28
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	4-18
Current OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC Record:	0-13
Expected OOC RPI:	316
Expected OOC SOS:	67

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
4-28	349.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Mississippi Valley St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	91-61	L	0%
11-13	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	91-51	L	0%
11-15	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	83-47	L	0%
11-19	Kent St. (154.0)	MAC	A	80-67	L	0%
11-21	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	63-50	L	0%
11-25	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	N	73-59	L	0%
11-26	Samford (296.0)	SC	A	83-70	L	0%
12-3	Oklahoma St. (88.0)	B12	A	83-62	L	0%
12-13	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	A	73-49	L	0%
12-16	Akron (227.0)	MAC	A	81-63	L	0%
12-18	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	71-38	L	0%
12-20	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	95-63	L	0%
12-23	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	A	74-57	L	0%
1-1	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	71-80	L	0%
1-6	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	63-46	L	0%
1-8	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	65-55	L	0%
1-13	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	63-77	L	0%
1-15	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	70-78	L	0%
1-20	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	91-77	L	0%
1-22	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	93-77	L	0%
1-27	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	72-67	W	100%
1-29	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	89-92	L	0%
2-3	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	H	85-89	L	0%
2-5	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	77-67	W	100%
2-10	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	94-90	L	0%
2-12	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	55-51	L	0%
2-17	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	71-72	L	0%
2-19	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	76-71	W	100%
2-24	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	60-59	L	0%
2-26	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	74-79	W	100%
3-3	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	94-57	L	0%
3-6	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	77-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Mississippi Valley St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Mississippi Valley St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Mississippi Valley St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	26.33	26.33	12.70	12.70	-19.64	-19.64
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	5.59	5.59	34.38	34.38	-1.75	-1.75
Texas Southern	SWAC	4.16	4.16	40.62	40.62	-0.78	-0.78
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.12	4.12	45.16	45.16	-0.40	-0.40
Southern	SWAC	4.09	4.09	37.93	37.93	-0.99	-0.99
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.02	4.02	6.90	6.90	-3.46	-3.46
Grambling St.	SWAC	4.01	4.01	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.01	4.01	32.14	32.14	-1.43	-1.43
Alabama St.	SWAC	4.01	4.01	20.69	20.69	-2.35	-2.35
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.00	4.00	19.23	19.23	-2.46	-2.46
UNLV	MWC	1.68	1.68	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
Utah	P12	1.68	1.68	62.07	62.07	0.41	0.41
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	1.66	1.66	62.07	62.07	0.40	0.40
Kent St.	MAC	1.66	1.66	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
Samford	SC	1.66	1.66	24.14	24.14	-0.86	-0.86
Utah St.	MWC	1.66	1.66	46.88	46.88	-0.10	-0.10
BYU	WCC	1.66	1.66	69.70	69.70	0.65	0.65
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
UAB	CUSA	1.61	1.61	56.67	56.67	0.22	0.22
Loyola Chicago	MVC	1.61	1.61	83.87	83.87	1.09	1.09
Akron	MAC	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Duquesne	A10	1.56	1.56	48.39	48.39	-0.05	-0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	1.56	1.56	56.25	56.25	0.20	0.20
Baylor	B12	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.20	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Ohio	MAC	0.20	0.20	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Chattanooga	SC	0.18	0.18	25.81	25.81	-0.09	-0.09
Iowa	B10	0.18	0.18	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.17	0.17	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Toledo	MAC	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.15	0.15	75.76	75.76	0.08	0.08
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.12	0.12	83.33	83.33	0.08	0.08
Nevada	MWC	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Kansas	B12	0.12	0.12	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Wyoming	MWC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Troy	SB	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Dayton	A10	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.07	0.07	16.13	16.13	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Cornell	Ivy	0.02	0.02	40.74	40.74	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
St. John's	BE	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.00	0.00